Covid 19 / Coronavirus

[Ghostrider]

^ The current action *might* be saving lives, temporarily.......

 

Lockdown simply reduces the rate of spread while it lasts, which is good, *if* something is a one trick pony, and once its passed through, its done with and gone. Unfortunately this Corona isn't that.

 

Even if the lockdown can be sustained until such time as no new cases have been found in the country in a month, which is highly doubtful, we're likely to go bankrupt first. What then, we'll still have a country where the majority of folk are susceptible to catching it unless an effective vaccine has been developed and administered, again highly doubtful.

 

One infected person or one contaminated object entering the country and infecting one person started where we've ended up now, and the same can and almost certainly will occur again and again as long as this virus is marching its way quite happily around the globe, probably for several times. Fresh waves of infection stretching over months, possibly years, each taking us right back to where we are now are almost inevitable until a vaccine is in effect, or herd immunity is reached.

 

Were a vaccine imminent the lockdown makes sense, but there's virtually zero appearance of it being that. Without it we've chosen the route of prolonging the agony of highly probable multiple outbreaks of infection over a long period, each with a probable similar death toll to the previous ones, as opposed to a once through with a single heavy death toll and getting it over and done with

 

When history gives its verdict, I wouldn't care to guess whether it'll conclude we acted correctly or were a bunch of fools, as I suspect that when all the numbers are in it won't matter what option what country took, as those, like us who chose lockdown will have a very similar victim count as a percentage of the population when all the victims of the multiple recurring outbreaks are totted up, as those who just let it run its course the once.

 

When there's nothing else to stop, what in effect is a silent and invisible potential killer, than herd immunity, it is wholly a numbers game. What route you take, and how long you take to get there is irrelevant, the numbers will continue to increase until the required effective critical mass is achieved.

Edited April 21, 2020 by Ghostrider

[Windwalker]

As I see it the main reason for the lockdown is to ensure our hospitals and care workers can try to cope, this might help save more lives in the long term as they may have enough ventilators to deal with those who get effected the worst. Basically spread out the numbers.

 

It’s  also giving a bit of time to build additional hospital beds and get more equipment in place and if that can save more lives, then surely that has to be a good thing.

 

It will eventually catch up with a lot of us, but hopefully most will get a mild effect and those who are hit the hardest can be offered a bed and the equipment necessary to hopefully be successfully treated. 
 

Yes, lots might come out in the wash and lots of questions will be raised, but of course hindsight is a great thing. Meantime we are living in the now and I’m sure if the government took the view of business as normal, let’s lots of folk catch it,  let folks of all ages get more ill because we don’t have the capacity to treat them and eventually bury them, a lot more folk would be up in arms.

 

I doubt there is a totally right or wrong way to work through this, but in my opinion doing what we can to reduce the overall loss of life is more important than a temporary restriction or effect on the economy.

[George.]

What might the total deaths be if this action wasn’t being taken, does this not prove that the current action might be saving lives ?

 

I don't, at present, know the full breakdown of the 23k deaths. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the vast majority of them died of the 'flu - and we really don't consider influenza to be a disaster, even a major problem nowadays. But throughout the winter 'flu period we have lost thousands and thousands of people - and nine hundred odd peeps with covid-19. That, to me, makes covid-19 relatively minimal. More people die of the 'flu and it's no great worry, but......

[shetlander]

When history gives its verdict, I wouldn't care to guess whether it'll conclude we acted correctly or were a bunch of fools, as I suspect that when all the numbers are in it won't matter what option what country took, as those, like us who chose lockdown will have a very similar victim count as a percentage of the population when all the victims of the multiple recurring outbreaks are totted up, as those who just let it run its course the once.

Not necessarily. Obviously nobody knows how future outbreaks might pan out but as an example New Zealand (who have had a more stringent lockdown than we have til now) has had just 12 deaths. Per head of population, that’d be the equivalent of about 160 in the UK.

 

What I think will come out in the wash as to how some countries have fared over others will be when lockdowns kicked in, when/if borders were shut, how widespread testing was, the state of their health service as well as things like population density, demographics, ethnic breakdown etc.

[NullVoid]

 

I don't, at present, know the full breakdown of the 23k deaths. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the vast majority of them died of the 'flu - and we really don't consider influenza to be a disaster, even a major problem nowadays. But throughout the winter 'flu period we have lost thousands and thousands of people - and nine hundred odd peeps with covid-19. That, to me, makes covid-19 relatively minimal. More people die of the 'flu and it's no great worry, but......

 

 

Problem is they are too far over the Rubicon to change coarse.

its been non stop wall to wall sensationalist coverage of the Plague.

 

 

The governments not going to just say:

Sorry about the whole going stir crazy losing your business etc, guess i just overreacted.

 

Modern Medicine has bought lots of us time we wouldn't otherwise have but nature always finds a way and the herd will be need one way or another.

[Ghostrider]

 

When history gives its verdict, I wouldn't care to guess whether it'll conclude we acted correctly or were a bunch of fools, as I suspect that when all the numbers are in it won't matter what option what country took, as those, like us who chose lockdown will have a very similar victim count as a percentage of the population when all the victims of the multiple recurring outbreaks are totted up, as those who just let it run its course the once.

Not necessarily. Obviously nobody knows how future outbreaks might pan out but as an example New Zealand (who have had a more stringent lockdown than we have til now) has had just 12 deaths. Per head of population, that’d be the equivalent of about 160 in the UK.

 

What I think will come out in the wash as to how some countries have fared over others will be when lockdowns kicked in, when/if borders were shut, how widespread testing was, the state of their health service as well as things like population density, demographics, ethnic breakdown etc.

 

New Zealand is going to be an interesting one to watch over the coming months, at the moment their closedown policy is being held up as the reason for their low death toll, and our's blamed for our much higher one. While this may, or may not be a factual cause/effect conclusion to reach, there isn't sufficient info/data available as yet to say either way.

 

What's largely being ignored with all this, probably because there''s no way of knowing ahead of time, is what effect the seasons has on this virus.

 

Generally speaking viruses thrive at cooler wetter times of year and struggle to make an impact in drier hotter times of year. Hence most flus, and flu type bugs are most prevalent in winter, and rare in summer.

 

Whether Covid follows this pattern, or not, yet remains to be seen as its not been around long enough yet for anyone to know, which adds a whole other dimension to forecasting its future pattern(s).

 

We're now in to spring, a time of year where most winter bugs start to decline fast and usually peter out over the next 4-6 weeks. New Zealand on the other hand are now in to their autumn with temperatures dropping, the tie when winter bugs start to thrive again and usually start hitting harder in a month or two from now.

 

Our figures at the moment appear to maybe have peaked, or are peaking, and predictably those with a vested interest are giving credit to the 'success' of our closedown. New Zealand have experienced low figures so far, and understandably their lockdown policy is being cited as responsible. One or both of the above may well be true, but likewise one or more of the above could equally be due to the normal virus patterns dictated by the seasons.

 

There will probably never be a 100% definitive answer, but its going to take at least another 3-6 months of observation and data collection/analysis before before any meaningful claims can be made about anything.

[shetlander]

Agree climate may be a factor but I’d be very surprised if the speed and extent of their lockdown won’t prove to have contributed significantly to their low mortality rate. Time will tell but if things continue on the current trajectory it could also prove to be what gets their economy back on track before most others.

 

South Korea is another interesting example - they’re just out of winter too but also seem to have got a grip on things largely through extensive testing and tracking.

 

There’s no right or wrong answer with any of this but there will be folk everywhere who think their government should have handled it all differently. I sure as hell wouldn’t want to be making the decisions when there’s such a delicate balance to be struck between protecting the economy and the lives of your citizens.

[George.]

Westminster comes to mind.

 

Coronavirus: Helen Whately clashes with Piers Morgan over testing

[George.]

Westminster comes to mind..................again.

 

UK official says EU ventilator call WAS political then denies it

[George.]

I don't believe it, Westminster YET again?????

 

Downing Street defends Hancock as blame game starts over PPE shortages

Edited April 22, 2020 by George.

[Windwalker]

Not that your looking for it George ! It’s easy to find someone to blame and find fault with. As Shetlander says “I’m glad I don’t have to make these decisions“.  They will be dammed if they do and dammed if they don’t.   

[George.]

They will be dammed if they do and dammed if they don’t.   

 

I would suggest that they're just like everybody that walks this earth. If they cock it up, they won't be allowed to forget it. It will also be kept clear in Joe Public's head. Then we don't forget it. Never forget the garbage that does a distinctly garbage job. They do, however, expect to be pandered to for no justifiable reason.

[NullVoid]

Dominic Raab refuses to give indication on when [First] UK coronavirus lockdown will be over
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-dominic-raab-refuses-give-21909910

UK risks a second lockdown if people don't stick to current rules, Dominic Raab says
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newsmanchester/uk-risks-a-second-lockdown-if-people-dont-stick-to-current-rules-dominic-raab-says/ar-BB13332Y?li=BBoPWjQ
 

And then a third and then a fourth maybe even a fifth!

 

[Ghostrider]

^ The 'cure being worse than the complaint' comes to mind.

 

The length and number of lockdowns only prolong the agony by delaying the inevitable. In the long run the many are going to have to pay a hefty price for attempting to save the few, and will fail to do so with most of them. What happened to 'sacrifice the few to save the many'?

 

Whatever numbers you believe, the death rate is in low single figures when measured across the entire population. A less than one in ten chance of dying from it, *if* you get it, or send the national economy in to a deep recession.... I'll take me chances on the 1 in 10 odds with that one I think.

 

By all means shield/deep quarantine the most vulnerable, strongly encourage social distancing strongly discourage any sort of non-essential get-togethers, and encourage the wearing of masks to stop anyone with it from spreading it any more than they really must. But otherwise let life go on normally, we're headed for the same place either way regardless, all we can tinker with in the present is the speed/time getting there.

 

We have two potential get outta jail cards, natural curtailment of the virus from seasonal change and a vaccine. Both at the moment are clutching at straws, and should be disregarded in decision making/future planning until and unless they become confirmed and factual.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Ghostrider

[George.]

^Strongly agree.

 

They never seem to compare it with the number of people that die of the 'flu. Sure that there must be a reason but they just haven't told us yet.

Edited April 23, 2020 by George.