Scottish Independence Referendum 2021

[MuckleJoannie]

Opinion polls in recent months have shown a consistent majority for independence following the SNP's decisive approach to tackling the coronavirus epidemic, as opposed to Boris's dithering. Nicola Sturgeon's approval ratings have been streets ahead of Boris's as well.

62% of Scottish voters voted to remain in the EU and we were told in the 2014 referendum that if Scotland wanted to remain in the EU we shoiuld vote to remain in the UK union.

Those seem to me to be grounds to have another referendum on independence.

 

 

[Colin]

8 hours ago, MuckleJoannie said:

62% of Scottish voters voted to remain in the EU and we were told in the 2014 referendum that if Scotland wanted to remain in the EU we shoiuld vote to remain in the UK union.

Those seem to me to be grounds to have another referendum on independence.

All of which was BEFORE the Brexit referendum where a majority throughout the UK voted  Leave.....

Anyway, how many "once in a lifetime" referendums do you think we should have ?

Seems to me that the SNP will keep demanding them until they get the answers they want..

Either way, if a referendum is held, and is in favour of independence, it would still be a number of years before full independence is achieved, and a number of years of severe austerity after that before Scotland would be in a position to qualify for European membership, thereby losing it's hard won independence. 

Looks like 'Lose-Lose' to me.

 

[Davie P]

Here's Alistair Carmichael's opinion on Independence https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/independence-would-be-brexit-20-and-make-things-even-worse-lib-dem-mp-claims-3125931

[Spoiler alert: he's not in favour]

[MuckleJoannie]

From that article

SNP MP Drew Hendry said

“The fact is that the authors themselves stressed that their analysis covered only the impact of trading costs but excluded post-independence economic or fiscal issues and other important factors - including taxes, inward investment or migration. It bases its findings on an independent Scotland not using our powers to change a single policy – or that we would accept the damage caused by the Tories' hard Brexit – and that we would sit on our hands and act as though nothing has changed.

“As an independent member of the EU, free from the damage of Brexit, Scotland would be part of the huge Single Market which is seven times the size of the UK."

 

 

[Rasmie]

The jury is out as far as I’m concerned. It’s in the interest of both sides to sell their own position. All politicians and lawyers have a lot to gain from winning. The Tory/unionists are being “led” by the rambling cocky Boris and the Nationalists come across to me as cunning and sleekit. Remember they are all politicians and their main instinct is to strengthen their own positions of power and/or wealth.

If and when independence arrives any ensuing shambles will be left to ordinary people and business owners to sort out.

My biggest concern will be what happens to my pension. I will probably be able to have dual nationality ( Scottish/ English rUK) to keep my options open.

[Colin]

56 minutes ago, Rasmie said:

My biggest concern will be what happens to my pension. I will probably be able to have dual nationality ( Scottish/ English rUK) to keep my options open.

I think that this question was answered last time around.

If you have paid in to the current system, then you are entitled to receive your pension no matter where you live.

[Roachmill]

9 minutes ago, Colin said:

I think that this question was answered last time around.

If you have paid in to the current system, then you are entitled to receive your pension no matter where you live.

That's my understanding too. That, and there was a commitment of sorts (salt at the ready!) to increase the amount paid out from an independent Scotland. Given the low rate of amount paid in to amount paid out in the UK... that doesn't appear impossible to achieve either.

[Colin]

2 hours ago, Roachmill said:

That's my understanding too. That, and there was a commitment of sorts (salt at the ready!) to increase the amount paid out from an independent Scotland. Given the low rate of amount paid in to amount paid out in the UK... that doesn't appear impossible to achieve either.

I think that the commitment(?) was a sweetener offering to bring pensions more into line with other European countries.  Anything for a vote I guess..

It might be worth noting that the UK is desperately trying to privatise pensions because they have (probably/almost certainly) spent all the money on other things.... 

I can't really see an independent Scotland being able to foot the bill for any length of time before they would have to do the same..

[Roachmill]

The Tories keep trying to change the name to include "welfare". This is in name only for now but it's widely thought that this is a precursor to making it only applicable to those that cannot pay into a private pension [which a lot already do anyway].

[Davie P]

8 hours ago, Colin said:

It might be worth noting that the UK is desperately trying to privatise pensions because they have (probably/almost certainly) spent all the money on other things.... 

I can't really see an independent Scotland being able to foot the bill for any length of time before they would have to do the same..

Pension liabilities are the economic elephant in the room for many (most?) countries and many companies too. Generous pensions are a popular vote winner and sweetens many an employment contract negotiation, but the future financial liabilities are building up across the board.

And, as you allude to Colin, it's a cozy myth that governments pop some pennies in a piggy bank until we're ready to put our feet up - most governments have deficits and are operating on borrowed money so current pension payment are coming from taxes paid by the current working population.

It's a completely unsustainable fiscal policy, and I'd hope Holyrood would take more long term view than Westminster.

--

I'll leave this provocation here...... pensioners have the highest disposable income level of any demographic so it's unfair to expect the current working population to pay for them. Discuss  

[Rasmie]

I have already paid for my state pension over nearly fifty years but if the government have squandered it away.....

however I also have company pensions - some of which were also raided by the government 

[Davie P]

Indeed @Rasmie, the government seems to treat pensions like a Ponzi/pyramid savings scheme. It works fine as long as more people keep paying in at the bottom. But it goes wrong when people live too long at the top!

[Capeesh]

The UK has the lowest state pension in the developed world, if all those countries can manage it why can't we?

https://www.ageuk.org.uk/latest-news/articles/2017/december/lowest-state-pension/

Edited February 11, 2021 by Capeesh

[Davie P]

2 hours ago, Capeesh said:

The UK has the lowest state pension in the developed world, if all those countries can manage it why can't we?

It doesn't feel fair, but it could be argued that the UK is managing the pension liability by making lower payments. We have an ageing population with an ever increasing draw on the pensions, and a not-particularly-buoyant economy to replenish the pensions (Covid, Brexit etc etc), so having lower payments, together with increasing the pension age, is a straightforward tactic to manage it.

 

[Capeesh]

An independent Scotland could copy Denmark, on all measures their pension system scores better than ours, now I think of it, why stop there?  The small independent Nordic countries seem to do everything better than us.