Climate Change & Global Warming

[Grafter]

I wonder if is there is any connection between the very cold winter we are experiencing and the volcanic eruption in Iceland earlier this year.

 

Historically, cold winters have followed some of the larger eruptions in the past.

[ArabiaTerra]

^^^^ I very much doubt it, Grafter, the Icelandic volcano was a tiddler by volcanic standards, a category 3 eruption. The last eruption to have a measurable effect on the climate was Pinatubo in 1992, a category 6 eruption. The scale is logarithmic so that makes Pinatubo around a thousand times the size of the recent Icelandic eruption.

 

The effects of Pinatubo lasted around 2 years.

[Evil Inky]

^^^^ I very much doubt it, Grafter, the Icelandic volcano was a tiddler by volcanic standards, a category 3 eruption.

I don't wish to be a pedant, but Wikipedia claims Eyjafjallajökull was a category 4 eruption. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_eruptions_of_Eyjafjallaj%C3%B6kull

[Graeme_Storey]

I don't wish to be a pedant, ....

I wouldn't describe you as a pedant - well, not exactly...

 

[ArabiaTerra]

Good catch Evil Inky, it was a category 4.

 

Still unlikely to affect the climate though:

 

And will the ash have a lasting effect on our climate? Probably not according to Alan Robock, a meteorologist from Rutgers University, New Brunswick, US. “So far, the emissions have been so small, that I expect no climate impacts,†he says. On April 14, there was 0.004 megatons of sulphur dioxide, as compared to 20 megatons for Mount Pinatubo in 1991, and it was emitted into the troposphere, where its lifetime is only a week or so, as opposed to 1-2 years for the stratosphere for Pinatubo. The ash will also fall out quickly, so I expect no climate impact, unless the eruption gets much stronger.â€

from here.

 

Ooops, and Pinatubo was 1991, not '92.

[ArabiaTerra]

Nature gets it wrong.

[KOYAANISQATSI]

I wonder if is there is any connection between the very cold winter we are experiencing and the volcanic eruption in Iceland earlier this year.

 

Seems to be an all clear in the stratosphere:

 

Earth's stratosphere is as clear as it's been in more than 50 years. University of Colorado climate scientist Richard Keen knows this because he's been watching lunar eclipses. "Since 1996, lunar eclipses have been bright, which means the stratosphere is relatively clear of volcanic aerosols. This is the longest period with a clear stratosphere since before 1960."

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

Might be a flabby arctic cyclone.

[ArabiaTerra]

To anyone who still doubts that the climate is changing, the ice cover in the Arctic is dropping again, in mid-winter!

 

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stdev_timeseries_webtmb.png

(click to enlarge)

[paulb]

AT your being very selective with your reading of the graph. explain september/october.

 

this shows your statement in a diffrent light.

http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20101206_Figure2.png

if you really think trying to use iffy data will win people over it won't,

[PJ of Hildisvik]

Paulb, icebergs could be sailing down Bressay Sound , you will never change AT's mind

[Evil Inky]

if you really think trying to use iffy data will win people over it won't,

What is it about the graph that makes you think the data is "iffy" ?

[Skunnered]

A blip in December - so that will be weather, then?

[ArabiaTerra]

AT your being very selective with your reading of the graph. explain september/october.

 

this shows your statement in a diffrent light.

 

if you really think trying to use iffy data will win people over it won't,

That's the wrong graph you're looking at, paulb, click on the one in my post.

 

Ice area is falling in December!

 

September and October were far below the average, what is there to explain?

[paulb]

not the lowest ever. it was colder than a few year earlier. taking one or two weeks readings as a trend is bad science. there could have been many reasons for a reduction in the sea ice around that time. we are in the second hard winter. the coldest december after a cold november. this is the same over the northern hemisphere. is this just chance that the warmth falls in the same period as a regional cold spell. there is no reason to believe this is anything other than a normal twitch of the earths weather systems.

[ArabiaTerra]

not the lowest ever. it was colder than a few year earlier. taking one or two weeks readings as a trend is bad science. there could have been many reasons for a reduction in the sea ice around that time. we are in the second hard winter. the coldest december after a cold november. this is the same over the northern hemisphere. is this just chance that the warmth falls in the same period as a regional cold spell. there is no reason to believe this is anything other than a normal twitch of the earths weather systems.

Yeah, you're probably right here, I jumped the gun on this one.

 

However I will take issue with this:

 

this is the same over the northern hemisphere.

Have you seen what's been going on in Greenland and NE Canada for the last few weeks?