Peak Oil Production & the journey down to empty?

[Guest Anonymous]

Here is an interesting bit of news from energy and capitol.

I would think very soon all the global warming freaks will be shutting up and worrying about other issues if things go this way ......

 

An article for Energy and Capital entitled "Canary in a Data Mine," which examined the global scenario for oil production and demand, and concluded:

 

So the upshot is this: There is clearly a yawning gap, possibly as much as 2%, opening between production and demand in 2007 for those of us who depend on imports.

 

It looks to me like the loss of export capacity will prove to be the canary in the data mine. It doesn't really matter if the peak is technically a few years off if we can't satisfy our ever-growing thirst.

 

That canary has now keeled over.

 

The problem is simple: Net oil exporters are awash in the cash from their oil exports. As they grow up and continue to industrialize, they consume more of their own production, which cuts into their exports.

 

There is also the factor of subsidies. With such extraordinary income from their oil sales, net oil exporters don't need the income from domestic consumption. They'd rather invest it in building infrastructure and stimulating their economies, so they subsidize the cost of fuel. Fast-growing economies like China would screech to a halt if consumers had to pay the market rate for fuel, so instead the Chinese pay about $2.80/gal for gasoline, and in the countries of the Middle East, gasoline generally goes for under $1.50/gal.

 

It should be obvious that as time goes on, the export problem becomes a vicious circle. As export supply falls, the price of exported oil goes up, which sends even more money to the producers, who will use it to build more and consume even more energy, which will further cut into their exports. A growing sentiment among net oil exporters to save some oil for future generations will further limit their output.

 

For a country like the U.S., which imports about two-thirds of its oil, the most immediate problem isn't peak oil, but peak exports. The gradual loss of imported oil has hit us first, and will cost us more than the mere global supply peak would.

[petergear]

Such action to conserve fuel would of course be highly unpopular , commercial air travel would become a thing of the past , fruit and vegetables fro far flung corners of the globe would be of the menu , energy qoutas could be introduced so if you didn't use wisely you might end up we candles at the end of each month , private cars might also be a thing of the past or all fitted with 500cc engines and a limited number of fuel tokens?

You may think i have gone a bit crazy on this subject , but its really my young family that leads me to worry about it

 

Sounds completely sane to me. I have no idea why our government don't make sweeping legislative changes immediately to minimise the damage. I believe most people would welcome such a move. Our government managed to successfully ban smoking in public places, something which at one time would have been unthinkable, but when it came, was almost universally welcomed (well, certainly accepted at least). I would liken hardline "eco" legislation as something most people would similarly welcome.

 

Perhaps girsecutters of the future will be wooly once more!!! Cars are simply going to have to shrink and slow down (horse and cart used to do fine at one time), motorbikes will become more popular, sea travel will be made under power of sail once more. A slower pace of life might not be such a bad thing anyway.

 

A friend of mine pointed out to me a few years ago how many aspects of life are reliant on oil; many chemicals & medicines, packaging, all the millions of little things made of plastic... and how in one generation from now, kids will be learning in school of our generation's pathetic inability to desist in our short-sighted consumption, and will be unable to believe that such a precious commodity was burnt

 

Cue the return of the Rayburn and the tushkar.

 

I think the days of grasscutting as we know it are soon to end, I am going to offer my services rotovating peoples' lawns to turn them into vegetable patches, and invest in a hand-push model (without an engine) instead, for those who can't bear to give up their ornamental lawn....!

[Styumpie]

droilker wrote:

Such action to conserve fuel would of course be highly unpopular , commercial air travel would become a thing of the past , fruit and vegetables fro far flung corners of the globe would be of the menu , energy qoutas could be introduced so if you didn't use wisely you might end up we candles at the end of each month , private cars might also be a thing of the past or all fitted with 500cc engines and a limited number of fuel tokens?

You may think i have gone a bit crazy on this subject , but its really my young family that leads me to worry about it

 

Thinking in terms of 10 years, no way oil is going to be under $1000 per barrel, we will be lucky if the pumps can keep a consistent supply. And not only with the cost in USD soaring, the pound is in for a real smackdown, Brown has bastardised the economy, just look at the level of debt. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2079rank.html

[derick]

I have no idea why our government don't make sweeping legislative changes immediately to minimise the damage.

 

becis dey widna get re-elected.

 

You hae ta geeng at da speed oda slowest (wi da Jurassic tendancy ida press hingin on your shins).

 

Population. Food. Energy per capita. - aathing idder is fluff.

[KOYAANISQATSI]

http://img383.imageshack.us/img383/1223/header1wz0.png

 

http://www.internalcombustionbook.com/

 

Looks interesting; I might get this for a flick through.

[ArabiaTerra]

This program investigates the end of oil and the impact it will have on our food production and suggests an alternative strategy.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00hs8zp/Natural_World_20082009_A_Farm_for_the_Future/

 

Brilliant stuff, and scary.

[PJ of Hildisvik]

I watched the other night, best program on the subject i've seen.

 

BUT... Can you see that method of Agriculture being adopted up here?

 

Too many petrol/diesel heads i fear

 

But imho, that is the way to go, but what are the chances, apart on a small local scale, but anything is better than nothing, and hope that it catches on.

[KOYAANISQATSI]

something wicked this way comes

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5NmW3FCWA8&eurl=http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=149680&t=01006952843786714939

[KOYAANISQATSI]

All oil is abiotic in origin

 

http://www.physorg.com/news167835116.html

 

Looks like we wont be running out anytime soon or perhaps ever.

 

I doubt it will show in the prices anytime soon though.

[KOYAANISQATSI]

^It seems to fit with the picture...

 

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/04/17/1019020660776.html

[sheepshagger]

I can confirm that oilfields thought to be empty have indeed filled up again in the North sea for example some platforms are now drilling to 20,000' deep to tap into resevoirs that were only found after the resevoirs at half that depth were replenished from below. whether this has anything to do with the earth producing new oil or if there is just reserves much deeper than previously thought I have to say the jury is still out on that one.

[KOYAANISQATSI]

Back in Black

http://www.gasresources.net/OnSpontaneiousRenewalVasyl.htm

 

The world-wide reserves of oil and gas were analyzed by Lasaga & Holland (1971) from both the perspectives of BOOP (biological-origin-of-petroleum - fossil fuel theory) and an abiotic origin of petroleum. By their estimates, the maximum quantity of crude oil that could have been produced by all biological matter on Earth could be represented by a thin 2.5mm film uniformly covering the Earth’s surface. Their estimates of the quantity of crude oil that could be produced abiologically could be represented by a thick 10km (!) layer uniformly covering the surface of the Earth. This difference estimates that abiotic petroleum must be at least 8 million times greater than could ever be expected from BOOP. Thus modern petroleum science predicts, even by the early estimates of Lasaga & Holland, that there exist tremendous quantities of petroleum, sufficient for the needs of humanity for thousands of years.

[KOYAANISQATSI]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091104123032.htm

 

Scientists in Washington, D.C. are reporting laboratory evidence supporting the possibility that some of Earth's oil and natural gas may have formed in a way much different than the traditional process described in science textbooks.

 

Some scientists believe that oil and gas originated in ways, including chemical reactions between carbon dioxide and hydrogen below Earth' surface.

They combined ingredients for this so-called abiotic synthesis of methane, the main ingredient in natural gas, in a diamond-anvil cell and monitored in-situ the progress of the reaction.

 

The results "strongly suggest" that some methane could form strictly from chemical reactions in a variety of chemical environments. This study further highlights the role of reaction pathways and fluid immiscibility in the extent of hydrocarbon formation at extreme conditions simulating deep subsurface.

[Skunnered]

Possibly formed from deep layers of dinosaurs' dung created over about 65 million years!?

[KOYAANISQATSI]

That's a load of sh*t.