Peak Oil Production & the journey down to empty?

[Evil Inky]

Ask yourselves this why woul big oil and the Saudi's say there is plenty of oil when saying the opposite would increase the price of their product many times over allowing them to make even more money than they allready do.

If, say, Shell, suddenly announced that they were running out of oil, what do you think would happen to their share price ?

[Gorgonzola Butt-cheese]

Peak oil isnt about running out all of a sudden , just not being able to extract enough to meet demand and then steadily producing less year by year.

After a recession could be a critical period(for maintaining supply) due to the reduced investment in exploration drilling and production hardware .

Also there has to be a ceiling to daily production levels , i dont know how much but we have been consuming globally 80 + million barrels a day the last few years.

Even if 90 or 100 million barrels could be produced , the projected rise in population might mean not meeting demand is a real possibility .

There are 4 things that are perhaps possible regarding this peak oil debate , which do you think is most true?

 

1.) There is still plenty of oil down there for our unlimited use for say the next 100 or 1000 years

( no problem ? mmm sure the warming alarmists wont be happy)

 

2.)There is still plenty down there but we will never be able to extract more than 90 million barrels a day for the same 100 or 1000 years

(problem due to growing demand , warmers still not chuffed)

 

3.) There is no more available on a daily basis than about 90 million a day and it will dwindle to nothing in 100 years , however the transition to new energy technology will be seamless and modern life will continue as before.

(No Problem)

 

4.) The same as 3 but without new energy technologies being able to fill the gap left by oil.

(MAJOR PROBLEMS)

 

Now I dont have a clue which of the above possibilities will play out to be true , but the future will follow somewhere along the lines of one the above.

What do you think ?

[Styumpie]

Being optimistic I would say 3, but to be more realistic 4.

 

Oil didnt spike to $150 dollars a barrel for no reason.

[Guest Anonymous]

It spiked at $150 because of market speculators buying tanker loads of oil and holding on to them to increase the price.

Quotas set by OPEC kept production at 90 million barrels a day and if 3-4 million barrels are being bought and held onto the price rises speculators and OPEC are both happy and the peak oil brigade start screaming we are running out and hay presto panic in the market and the price goes up again. More smiles from the speculators and OPEC.

[Evil Inky]

^^^^

Well, that's capitalism for you. If you don't like it, go and live in North Korea

[Guest Anonymous]

I am not complaining about it inky just explaining to others what is going on, and why peak oil is a load of tosh. and the effect that tosh can have on market price.

There are huge deposits of oil and gas that have never even been drilled for yet, it will cost a lot more to get to and that is why the companies are quite happy to sit on them for a while yet.

remember less than 5 % of the surface of the earth has been explored sciesmicly.

So how can anyone state that we are running out when we haven't even looked in more than 95% of the places it could be.

[KOYAANISQATSI]

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/108509/cramped-on-land-big-oil-bets-at-sea

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aewqoZXWbkeU&pos=14

 

William “Tex†Moncrief, the billionaire wildcatter and scion of one of the founding families of the Texas oil industry, is betting the key to finding new gushers is to go deeper than anyone has gone before.

 

Oil found deeper under exhausted oil fields is as described by Abiotic Oil pioneer Nikolai Kudryavtsev:

 

Kudryavtsev's Rule states that any region in which hydrocarbons are found at one level will also have hydrocarbons in large or small quantities at all levels down to and into the basement rock. Thus, where oil and gas deposits are found, there will often be coal seams above them. Gas is usually the deepest in the pattern, and can alternate with oil. All petroleum deposits have a capstone generally impermeable to carbon's upward migration, and this capstone leads to the accumulation of the hydrocarbon.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Kudryavtsev

 

"peak" oil based on the "fossil" hypothesis is an artifact from the then prevailing paradigm which couldn't conceive of Abiotic Oil.

Chances are when it comes to finding oil; we haven't even scratched the surface of the Serpentosphere.

It's doubtful that the hydrocarbons, like methane, and a byproduct, like CO2, contribute much to climate. Heat on Earth's surface more likely comes mainly from the galactic electric current intercepted by the Sun.

 

It ain't what you know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

[Styumpie]

There is no point in arguing about this, time will reveal the truth, in 10 years time we will know if peak oil was real if the price has gone to the moon, place your bets please.

[KOYAANISQATSI]

Then there is no point in any discussing of most issues raised on internet forums, for all the difference it makes.

So why come here?

Some find the sharing of information and ideas a worthwhile pastime.

 

You say that if oil companies decide to drip feed us oil at exorbitant prices, that this is proof that peak oil is real. It sounds more like them getting more money for less work to me and nowhere near proof of the peak oil myth; that they will force down our throats anyway, along with any other crap that the trusting public will swallow.

[KOYAANISQATSI]

in 10 years time we will know if peak oil was real

 

Why wait?...

 

The evolution of multicomponent systems at high pressures: VI. The thermodynamic stability of the hydrogen–carbon system: The genesis of hydrocarbons and the origin of petroleum

 

http://www.pnas.org/content/99/17/10976.full

 

no biochemical investigation has ever observed a molecule of any hydrocarbon heavier than methane resulting from the decomposition of biological detritus. After a meal of, e.g., Boston baked beans, one does experience biogenic methane, but not biogenic octane. No such process produces heavier hydrocarbons

_______

In short, the genesis of natural petroleum must occur at depths not less than ?100 km, well into the mantle of the Earth. The experimental observations reported in section 5 confirm theoretical predictions of section 4, and demonstrate how, under high pressures, hydrogen combines with available carbon to produce heavy hydrocarbon compounds in the geochemical environment of the depths of the Earth.

 

Which all points to Earth's deep storehouse of abiotic chemicals being an active place, driven by immense pressures, temperatures, and electromagnetic energy where countless chemical reactions take place on a continuing and ongoing basis.

[Styumpie]

Either we will have a peak oil event or we wont, there is lots of evidence on both sides, time has the answer.

 

I think that abiotic oil is possible, will it be able to provide us indefinitely with cheap oil, no one knows 100%, I cant see it myself, time will tell.

 

Rona thinks the world is awash with oil, I agree with that, but the oil we seem to be peaking on is the easy to get light crude with a good EROEI that lets us live like we currently do. Will they find another Ghawar? probably not.

 

None of us know.

[Gorgonzola Butt-cheese]

I dont know about abiotic oil ? if so then why are we having to extract in hugely texpensive locations such as arctic circle ?

We probably do still have a big bath of oil left , the danger may be that we only have a teaspoon to take it out?

[Skunnered]

^^Which of course means much higher oil prices in the future.

[Styumpie]

Peak oil beginning to go mainstream

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply

 

Considering were flat broke and going to need a booming world economy for the next 15 years so we can lick our wounds back to health, perfect storm?

[Guest Anonymous]

whichever way it goes long term will be determined by the filthy rich n the greedy , so, at present the govt are controlling it into a scenario where thier poplur voters are well enough off to soak up most of the absurd taxation levels n the poorer working folk are being forced off the road , heading quickly to a victorian style them n us culture