Pig flu and Shetland

[paulb]

Lets not panic just yet. But are were ready if this bug turns nasty.

Its got the potential to match the Spanish flu of 1918. Between 22000 and 70000 people died in Scotland. The mortality rate was 10% and a very nasty death. its the same type and the same route as the 1918 outbreak. Its jumped and combined human avian and pig dna and is highly contagous with infection to symptoms in 1-2 days this is faster than the normal cold.

 

So what impact could a disease that we have no immunity to have on us.

Say 50% of the islanders get the bug. we could expect a death rate of the same 10% so 1100 potential deaths. given that Anti viral drugs should reduce this so lets say 650.

 

The people worst hit will be the 20-40 age group. this has issues with the function of services. if like the Saar's outbreak health care will breakdown one of the highest groups to get the bug were doctors and nurses. but beyond that transport, food etc will be seriously effected.

 

To reduce deaths the anti viral drugs need to be given as soon as possable. So lets hope we have a stockpile up here. the day or two to get it from south will be to long.

 

It maybe wise to have a few weeks worth of basic food in. The only places that avoided the 1918 outbreak were islands that isolated themselves.

 

The centre of disease control recommend that people with confirmed infection should be nursed in a negative atmosphere side rooms. The nurses and doctors should have full face respirators and they should be trained in there use. We don't have any of these up here. Remember the medical staff need to be safe or there will not be any medical treatment.

 

There is the possibility of hundreds of patients needing nursing. So plans need to be made for say the clickamin to be taken over.

 

plans needed for the safe removal and disposal of bodies. Its unlikely that the normal burial system could cope.

 

Its a horrid picture and i really hope it does not happen but a wait and see attitude will only kill people.

[khitajrah]

Weren't we all going to die of bird flu not too long ago?

[fairislefaerie]

What scares me, is that as with any flu type infection, there will be a number of people who will just be natural carriers of the disease, no symptoms, just live virus to pass along where ever they go. Shetland see's a reseasonable number of tourists from that part of the world, it only takes 1 carrier to start a big problem.

[paulb]

the bird flu never jumped the species barrier. This one has.

three new out breaks new Zealand, france and Israel.

 

I forgot to mention that there will not be any medevac for flu cases we will be on our own. I don't want to scare anyone but just be prepared. If it happens forget modern medicine. Remember there is no cure. Antivirals will help but they will not cure it. Antivirals can also have serious side affects. The best option is isolation if it happens all schools and public places will close only essential services will happen. expect food shortages/power cuts. basically expect to be on your own. Churches will also close so no proper funerals.

 

So if you start getting ill stay at home. NO GOING TO WORK/SCHOOL. Only contact the doctor if your very worried(remeber its not the old and young that this bug will hit but the fit and healthy) Do not go to hospital unless directed there by your health professional. There should be an isolation unit set up for flu cases but avoid unneeded exposure.

 

Lets hope this bug dies out.

[2lb_saucermeat]

Calm boy!

[KOYAANISQATSI]

Roll down yer trooser leg paul, we all just use sky news these days when we need fear mongered.

[Njugle]

Hmm, yes indeed.

 

I forgot to mention that there will not be any medevac for flu cases we will be on our own. I don't want to scare anyone but just be prepared. If it happens forget modern medicine. Remember there is no cure. Antivirals will help but they will not cure it. Antivirals can also have serious side affects. The best option is isolation if it happens all schools and public places will close only essential services will happen. expect food shortages/power cuts. basically expect to be on your own. Churches will also close so no proper funerals.

 

Around 1,000 people in Mexico have symptoms of the disease. There have also been eight cases across the US border in southern California and Texas but all recovered.

 

Preparedness is one thing, but statements like "there is no cure" You are on your own""expect food shortages/power cuts" may be a little provocative, don't you think?

[MJ]

the bird flu never jumped the species barrier.

 

Bird flu jumps the species barrier the whole time! just thousands of different ones out there, some are more dangerous than others. Just look at the spannish flu.

but honestly, we have as much to worry about as we did with Sars. be sensible and don't let the media wind you up!

[paulb]

no i don't.

http://www.shb.scot.nhs.uk/healthcare/shetlandwide/publichealth/documents/ShetlandFluPlan.pdf

this is a very serious threat. If you want to ignore it that's fine but we are too accustomed to having a fully working health/ infrastructure. I'm just suggesting that we are aware of the problems that we will face. Having decent plans to cope with the worst case is better than just hoping it goes away. Just have a think how it could effect you and plan to reduce the impact.

[paulb]

the bird flu never jumped the species barrier.

 

Bird flu jumps the species barrier the whole time! just thousands of different ones out there, some are more dangerous than others. Just look at the spannish flu.

but honestly, we have as much to worry about as we did with Sars. be sensible and don't let the media wind you up!

this is the same virus and same route as Spanish flu. No bird flu became human to human this has. This little bug meets all the requirements for pandemic infections. Sars and the avian flu needed close animal contact with very limited person to person contact. They had the potential but never mutated as this one has.

[khitajrah]

^ That document is 3 years old.

[KOYAANISQATSI]

We don't even have any FEMA camps up here for our Quarantine.

Can we just all come round and stay at your yours paul? I'm sure you would be a dab hand at the old forced Vaccinations.

 

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/8800/images1pet.jpg

[MJ]

the bird flu never jumped the species barrier.

 

Bird flu jumps the species barrier the whole time! just thousands of different ones out there, some are more dangerous than others. Just look at the spannish flu.

but honestly, we have as much to worry about as we did with Sars. be sensible and don't let the media wind you up!

this is the same virus and same route as Spanish flu. No bird flu became human to human this has. This little bug meets all the requirements for pandemic infections. Sars and the avian flu needed close animal contact with very limited person to person contact. They had the potential but never mutated as this one has.

 

You mean all the stuff those oxford university folk told me about flu is wrong? just assumed that the tropical medicine department knew what they were talking about. Must admit never could figure out why the tropical medicine department was studying penguins, not many of them come from tropical climbs.

[Njugle]

paulb, no-one is suggesting that anyone ignore the existence of this virus. I was merely trying to emphasise that if the virus makes it here, to Shetland, then people who catch it do have a chance of recovery and IF it becomes a serious outbreak there may indeed be disruption. It is not a definite eventuality that we should "expect power cuts/food shortages", more a warning of a possibility.

 

So if you start getting ill stay at home. NO GOING TO WORK/SCHOOL. Only contact the doctor if your very worried(remeber its not the old and young that this bug will hit but the fit and healthy) Do not go to hospital unless directed there by your health professional. There should be an isolation unit set up for flu cases but avoid unneeded exposure.

 

Might I further suggest that this should perhaps read "If you start getting ill with serious flu-like symptoms stay at home and contact a health care professional immediately and continue to do so as normal for all other non-flu related illnesses. If you are not trying to scare anyone, as you claim.

The points you are making are valid, but come across as provocative and fairly extreme.

[MJ]

I hate trying to find stuff that's easy to understand, this is wiki

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

 

One theory is that the virus strain originated at Fort Riley, Kansas, by two genetic mechanisms – genetic drift and antigenic shift – in viruses in poultry and swine which the fort bred for food, but evidence from a recent reconstruction of the virus suggests that it jumped directly from birds to humans, without traveling through swine.

 

in this case recent is at least in the last 12years as I'm sure it was explained to me when I came back from Cuba with pneumonia. I couldn't figure out how I'd caught a cold in a heat wave.