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Shetland windfarm - Viking Energy


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"Majority of people in Shetland opposed to windfarm and less than a third in favour"

http://www.shetlandtimes.co.uk/2009/09/18/majority-of-people-in-shetland-opposed-to-windfarm-and-less-than-a-third-in-favour

 

Perhaps David Thompson/ VE can now retract their statement that VE have the people of Shetland on board with their windfarm project?

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What a rediculous article in the Shetland Times this week regarding the polls for this proposed windfarm.

 

It starts off, QUOTE: "Just under half of Shetland's adult population is opposed to the huge windfarm proposed."

 

Looking at the figures, only 1050 of the population of Shetland voted. That works out to roughly 1 in 20 people voting....

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What a rediculous article in the Shetland Times this week regarding the polls for this proposed windfarm.

 

It starts off, QUOTE: "Just under half of Shetland's adult population is opposed to the huge windfarm proposed."

 

Looking at the figures, only 1050 of the population of Shetland voted. That works out to roughly 1 in 20 people voting....

 

Well, 48% is just under half.

 

 

It's an opinion poll, hence a sample of people in the population, not the full population.

"The random sample was weighted for age, sex and population distribution to give as accurate as possible a picture of opinion on the biggest issue to affect the isles since the arrival of oil in the 1970s. There is a standard margin of error of ± three per cent."

 

Put it another way, only 31% are in favour.

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48% is just under half..

 

Yes, half of 1050, which my maths has it as 504 people in Shetland have declared themselves opposed.

 

 

It's an opinion poll, hence a sample of people in the population, not the full population.

 

Put it another way, only 31% are in favour.

 

I realise this, however my point was you cannot say this qualifies as half of the adult population.

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48% is just under half..

 

Yes, half of 1050, which my maths has it as 504 people in Shetland have declared themselves opposed.

 

 

It's an opinion poll, hence a sample of people in the population, not the full population.

 

Put it another way, only 31% are in favour.

 

I realise this, however my point was you cannot say this qualifies as half of the adult population.

 

Quite right, they should have said that this extrapolates to just under half the adult population of Shetland being opposed to the windfarm.

 

I would have perhaps written the headline on their website as "Poll shows that less than a third of the Shetland public to be in Favour of Viking Energy Windfarm"... much less woolly.

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I wasn't even aware of a poll until this morning when I got the paper!

 

Neither was anybody I've spoken to.

 

The general reaction seems to be "whit a load o tabloid BS". I certainly agree wi that, especially after reading it in detail.

 

There was an article about it in the Shetland Times earlier in the year. A member of my family was one of the 1050.

 

... and I find this load of tabloid BS more believable than the VE BS when it comes to public opinion

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What a rediculous article in the Shetland Times this week regarding the polls for this proposed windfarm.

 

It starts off, QUOTE: "Just under half of Shetland's adult population is opposed to the huge windfarm proposed."

 

Looking at the figures, only 1050 of the population of Shetland voted. That works out to roughly 1 in 20 people voting....

 

Statistical sampling theory allows you to assume that if a certain percentage of a population votes a certain way this can be extrapolated to say that the whole population will act in the same way. The sample has to be truly random. Its many years since I did statistics at college so don't expect me to give a more detailed explanation!

 

If you want more detail you could start with this article from Wikipedia.

 

Statistical inference or statistical induction comprises the use of statistics and random sampling to make inferences concerning some unknown aspect of a population

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what annoyed me about the paper was the headline saying "Majority opposed to windfarm and less than a third in favour".

 

Surely 48% isn't a majority?

 

In my opinion the headline should say "Majority in favour of or undecided about the windfarm" but I guess whilst that would be more technically accurate (in my mind) it wouldn't have the same headline effect

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