Mareel - Cinema & Music Venue

[Ghostrider]

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Mareel, in it's present conception, falls into all those categories.

It will never break even. It will always be coming to the council, cap in hand, like the Dale golf course, for handouts.

 

I have to agree with the above I'm afraid. Reality check time, a venue in Shetland does not pay, a cinema in Shetland does not pay, these things are proven facts. If you don't believe that, just ask yourself why the Star, as a cinema, was being run on a shoestring in the mid 70's when no-one had a video and the TV was one channel b&w, and why it closed completely shortly afterwards. Ask why the plans that have been mooted since for a cinema never went anywhere.

 

Then ask why the Planets became a restaurant in the mid 70's as well, and is now flats, and why the Jublilee was a short lived venture and is now a print works. Then ask why the Star, as a venue, was so down at heel and why at the first whiff that Mareel was likely to became a reality it's owner unloaded it.

 

If any of the above had been see in the eyes of their owners/operators to have a future with a healthy profit, I very much doubt they'd have been running them in to the ground and/or shutting up shop like they did do.

 

The paying bits of Mareel incorporate both of what the Star was at one time or another, as a cinema it apparently couldn't pay 25 years ago, as a venue it apparently made so little profit that it was not worth refurbishing/upgrading from the hotchpotch it was. I don't doubt that if the then owner had believed an upgrade/refurbishment would retain the majority of the current trade and kept the venture profitable, that he wouldn't have gone ahead with one. The fact he didn't suggests that either the current trade was such that the profits were so slim that at best if he could not guarantee to retain 100% of that trade, fresh investment was not worthwhile, or at worst, they were barely enough to make it worthwhile as it stood.

 

Against that backdrop, I cannot see how the projected earning power of Mareel can possibly be in the black in four years, as da Auld een says "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics", and that can be the only reasonable conclusion to reach to explain how the projections says they will. What will Mareel have that the Star in either of it's roles didn't, that will attract this significant additional customer spend? I'm seeing nothing, as I said before, the Star wasn't a goldmine as either a cinema or as a venue, Mareel simply sets both versions of the Star side by side, so what attracts the extra income?

 

When one part of the plan (the projected income) appears for all intents and purposes to be a pure fabrication with no basis in reality, I'm afraid that fact greatly sourens the whole plan for me, you begin to wonder if the number crunchers have gone that far in to fantasy land with their forecasts, just who else involved in the plan's creation has gone as far, or further in to their own version of fantasy land.

 

The realist in me says Mareel will always need some level of annual subsidy to survive, and I'd be much much happier about the whole plan if the projections were based on what were, to me, more believable figures. It would be nice if it could cover it's running costs, but all the evidence points to the contrary, without really showing how the predicted turn around is achieved. I'm not entirely opposed to an annual subsidy, but I am opposed to be told that one won't be needed, when I am 99.9% sure that a year or two after it's built, a report appears in front of the SIC, in one of their guises saying, "Oops, our experts miscaluclated/income is only 50% of that which was projected etc, and we need you to give us £100,000 or whatever to get us out of the hole, please and thankyou".

 

I'd much rather know up front what it will cost Shetland every year, and decide if it's worth it, than be fobbed off with unbelievable platitudes, which is how the "no subsidy" line comes across. If folk are to be convinced that the "no subsidy" line is realistic and achievable, a whole lot more information is going to have to be made available as to how it was arrived at so that folk can make up their own minds about how accurate it is.

 

To my mind so little about this plan has money making potential, that getting in to the black is impossible. The cinema I'd say would be darn lucky to ever break even, the small cinema even less so, which leaves the venue tickets and drinks sales. I can only see them turning a healthy profit on high attendance occasions, and how many of those will there be?

[nic]

Let me guess. Minimum wages for all the staff is the usual trick in a business plan (or perhaps volunteers?). It would indeed be very nice to enjoy a state of the art venue on our doorstep but state of the art soon moves on. In the business plan when is the first upgrade works budgeted? Years 10 to 15? Who will pay for the upgrades or will we just make do with the 15 year old tech in 15 years time?

[Guest Anonymous]

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Mareel, in it's present conception, falls into all those categories.

It will never break even. It will always be coming to the council, cap in hand, like the Dale golf course, for handouts.

Well, thank god for optimism and enthusiasm. With this kind of backing we can conquer the world. I mean it's not like this is some salmon farm owned by the chief exec's brother or anything. Come on Auld Een, give us some evidence for the guaranteed failure of this venture, share with us the wisdom of your magic all-seeing crystal ball.

 

Some people...

 

Exactly.... Some People

 

Although, Ghostrider just said, in a nutshell, almost exactly what I think.

But, I would add the fact that the Mareel concept is mostly supported by youngsters, and although I fully understand that the young people think they need Mareel, they also need the latest video game, as soon as it's released but very quickly get bored with it.

If Mareel is to be a success it needs long term commitment from the Shetland public, not just flash-in-the-pan enthusiasm. And if it gets that commitment, it will be the first time in history that 'little kids' have played with the toy, which came in the packaging which they thought was so attractive.

 

I don't need a crystal ball to see what is going to happen to Mareel. Just a realistic outlook.

[khitajrah]

Last night I was listening to some lovely opera on BBC Radio 2. The radio presenter mentioned how a particular piece caused quite a bit of controversy amongst opera lovers in it's day because it was of a different, more modern, style. The presenter (his name escapes me) commented on how it was the typical "new against old" argument and this Mareel debate sprang to my mind.

[Guest Anonymous]

^^^^ Perhaps there is some "New against Old" feeling here, and rightly so.

Some people here believe that this New venue will succeed, where all the Old ones have failed.

Some here, including me, think that the New music is better than the Old.

Some, sadly deluded, people think that the New council will waste less money than the Old one.

[JAStewart]

I'd happily volunteer as a worker at Mareel for no pay. The reward for me is the music. Me and Energizer had this same attitude, no money, just music.

 

So yeah, sign me up and I'll put some time into Mareel.

[peeriebryan]

I'll try to respond to some unanswered questions and clarify some facts

 

Anyone know which contractors have expressed an interest in tendering for Mareel?.

That's commercially sensitive I'm afraid!

 

....The external funding is a big issue here, and should be considered carefully as part of any alternative ideas.

As you state Carlos, this is a very important point. Mareel will be built using many millions of external funding that isn't available for renovations, building schools etc or commercial organisations

 

Shetland cannot support cinema provision in the sense you propose, I refer you to James W Irvine's letter in today's paper.

As an example: Picky cinema (Orkney) attendance figures

 

07/08 34,425

06/07 30,555

05/06 31,987

04/05 32,526

03/04 29,592

 

Note the over all growth in cinema attendance over the past 5 years. Based on the 34,425 figures for the past year and Orkney's population of 20,000 the attendance figures equate to 1.7 attendances per head of the population. The same figure was independently arrived at for Mareel's per head attendance

 

Shetland Arts is projecting a year one figure of 38,525 cinema attendances for Mareel (Shetland currently has a cinema attendance of around 20,000 concentrated on 4 days a month). Based on a population figure of 22,000 this also equates to 1.7 attendances per head of the population.

 

Based on both local and national trends cinema attendance sin Orkney are likely to continue to grow over coming years. Orkney is operating a cinema 7 days a week 2 –3 showing per day

 

For starters, when the Garrison first started showing films it could guarantee a good audience. Now the novelty of having such a provision has worn off, audiences are much smaller, one might say they have even leveled off, giving us a good indication of the demand for such a provision in the Isles is. But of course, that is mere speculation.

Yes, that is speculation. For the past 5 years the Garrison has had a fairly steady annual average of 20,000 cinema admissions (I don't have the exact figures to hand)

 

Then you have the problems of timetabling. Using the Garrison as a cinema would mean having to compromise with the theatre groups as to who gets the use of the building.....

This is another important point. The theatre diary is full at many times during the year, making it difficult for community groups to book slots. When film showings transfer to Mareel there will be more opportunities for community drama and visiting theatre

 

the lack of a contractor on board committed to the values talked about

The contract hasn't yet been put out to tender

 

... but there does need to be a balanced and even view of just how much money this place will make.

As has been pointed out before on this thread, such an assessment has already been done and the facility is predicted to require a subsidy for the first 3 years, break even by year 4 and to have paid back the first 3 years subsidy by year 5.

Not strictly true. The Charitable Trust have offered up to £100,000 to cover initial setup costs in year 1 (although it is not expected that the full sum will be required. Again, I don't have the exact figures to hand) with subsequent cost being absorbed by Shetland Arts in yrs 2 & 3. There is no obligation to pay back the Charitable Trust

 

The 'For Mareel' side need to consider the objections raised, of which there are many, from all angles, from councillors, from musicians like myself, from local business experts, from the average person on the street.

...and indeed we do.

 

 

 

 

And from the point of view of music, forget it.... Try doing a search on Google for music in Shetland. You might find something interesting, but most likely you'll find sausage all, apart from a few bands who are trying to do something, achieving nothing, and likely to continue doing so.

With the obvious exception of Black Bic Biro and Little Green Machine, which are excellent.

 

EDIT: Sorry, that statement about "sausage all" was a bit unfair to the excellent traditional acts like Hom Bru, Fiddlers Bid, etc..

The comment was directed at the absolutely "waste of space" pop, rock, or whatever to hell you want to call them acts, which think they represent Shetland music.

Urrrm...is that not half the point? To promote and develop Shetland Music?

How to hell can you promote something which doesn't really exist??????

Somewhere on this site there is a list of pop/rock bands. I can't be arsed to look for it. But can you genuinely find me any reason why any of them deserve any more than a passing mention???

These posts astound me! What knowledge of Shetland pop/rock bands do you have, apart from "doing a search on Google", to make such a sweepingly critical generalisation?

 

Tonight I'm going to see 2 "pop/rock" bands. Last weekend I saw 4 "pop/rock" bands. The weekend before that I saw 4 "pop/rock" bands. The weekend before that I saw 5 "pop/rock" bands.........

 

 

Reality check time, a venue in Shetland does not pay, a cinema in Shetland does not pay, these things are proven facts.

These are definitely not proven facts. There are many reasons why venues and cinemas open/ close/ change usage. With the greatest respect GH, you don't provide any evidence for this, but simply ask a series of apparently rhetorical questions

 

When one part of the plan (the projected income) appears for all intents and purposes to be a pure fabrication with no basis in reality

The business plan has been closely scrutinised by many organisations and individuals. It is certainly not "pure fabrication"

 

Who will pay for the upgrades or will we just make do with the 15 year old tech in 15 years time?

Shetland Arts

[JAStewart]

any reason why any of them deserve any more than a passing mention???

 

http://blog.pbwiki.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/fail.jpg

 

Your ignorance, as PB says, is astounding.

 

I'll keep this brief. Someone once said that about a book by J. K. Rowling. Apparently it wasn't worth more than a passing mention from the book companies that turned her down.

 

You claim that you 'cant be arsed' to find the list of bands. This just indicated your lazy attitude. Its in Music>Shetland Music On The Internet.

 

I'm sure it was the Beatles who people said would 'never make it big' when they started out.

 

Not only are you undermining all the hard work that Shetland artists, promoters and fans are putting in, your attitude would only lead to musical regression.

 

Astounding.

[Ghostrider]

Reality check time, a venue in Shetland does not pay, a cinema in Shetland does not pay, these things are proven facts.

These are definitely not proven facts. There are many reasons why venues and cinemas open/ close/ change usage. With the greatest respect GH, you don't provide any evidence for this, but simply ask a series of apparently rhetorical questions

 

The facts are, based on the information available to the general public, is that no cinema or venue has managed to be a runaway commercial success in Shetland in over thirty years, why should we suddenly believe this plan will be?

 

One of the former, and plans for at least one, plus at least three of the latter have existed in that time, yet none of them are around today. Certainly, numerous other factors come in to play as to whether any one business thrives or fails, but when all the predecessors in a certain field for three decades have ended up going the same way, and we are told the latest plan for the same is going to be profitable, it becomes very difficult to believe in the figures being put about.

 

When one part of the plan (the projected income) appears for all intents and purposes to be a pure fabrication with no basis in reality

The business plan has been closely scrutinised by many organisations and individuals. It is certainly not "pure fabrication"

 

With all due respect to the organisations and individuals concerned, some of us at least, believe that they are very much mistaken in the conclusions they have reached. To put it bluntly, the numbers put about which make this a paying spec just don't seem achievable. In this case, quoting the numbers that say the right things just isn't good enough, a whole lot more work and information will need to be put forth by those who created and/or support the numbers in their present form, to convince the rest of us why we should believe them to be realistic, and not the wishful thinking they appear at present.

 

Don't get me wrong, I want to support what Mareel is trying to achieve, but I just don't buy the information and PR in it's present form that's being put about for it. On a matter of principle I cannot support something when I do not believe the information that's in the public domain about it, and I certainly won't try and "sell" it to anyone else as long as that situation remains.

[Guest Anonymous]

any reason why any of them deserve any more than a passing mention???

 

Your ignorance, as PB says, is astounding.

 

 

My ignorance isn't really astounding. I did do a little bit of research.

My source was:

http://shetlopedia.com/Category:Shetland_Music

 

Simply look at any of the Pop, Rock, or whatever, acts there. Surely if music is worth spending so much money on, then I would have expected to see some information about the bands.

Although, perhaps I am right in my assumption that they're not worth more than a passing mention.

[JAStewart]

You're using the wrong measure. Shetlopedia doesn't have any information on Brae High School, does that mean that the Brae High School is an insignificant thing, not worth of a passing mention, not worth of new facilities, not worth of financial investment? Of course not.

 

Just because I or the bands haven't added anything on the band pages doesn't mean they're insignificant, it just means that info hasn't been added.

[Guest Anonymous]

Or the information isn't available, or nobody has enough interest in it, etc...

[JAStewart]

That's a logical fallacy to assume that. If we're to assume that, we have to assume that there is either no information on Brae High School and the Shetland Bird Club or that no-one cares about them, for example. Do you now understand why using the quantity of content on pages of Shetlopedia is a false measurement?

[Guest Anonymous]

^^^Logic dictates that there are no contributors interested in Brae High School, or the Shetland Bird Club.

But as a person supposedly interested in Shetland Music created those music pages. Either that person knows nothing about it, or there is nothing to know.

[JAStewart]

Either that person knows nothing about it, or there is nothing to know.

 

...or it just hasn't been filled in yet?

 

Again, you've proposed a logical fallacy:

 

Person A creates Page B

Page B doesn't get updated

Therefore, the creator knows nothing or there is nothing to know about page B

 

This completely ignores the fact that I'm not required to fill them out. There is not a time limit in supplying the information.

 

I'd love to have the time to personally get in touch with the bands and invite them to edit their own pages so that we would have a more complete directory of Shetland bands, but I don't exactly have the time. I've got two 4000 word essays due soon and I've got exams coming up.