Pig flu and Shetland

[nederlander]

Those wimpy 20 somethings typical get a little sniffle and they pop there clogs.

The goverment in some planning meeting guessed that upto 3/4 of a million could die if a simular bug to that of 1918 happens.

 

On one hand you are saying that many people could die, on the other one you are saying that 20 somethings are wimpy and complain at a mere sniffle, make your mind up! I also like the use of speculative language..."some planning meeting" (what planning meeting was that? A road development one, or something to do with the health service?) They guessed did they? Honestly, where are you getting this stuff from?

[JordanKZ]

Hmm... From what I've read on various news sites, it appears that common flu (H1N1) isn't all that common in Mexico so, people don't have a 'natural' immunity to it. Hence why people are dying there, but living in most other places.

 

I've heard so many different things about what's killing the people in Mexico though. Over responsive immune system, breathing problems associated with too much mucus in the lungs, Pneumonia or just a lack of medical care.

 

I think by the end of the week, we're going to know how bad this is going to get. Either, the bad cases will stay in Mexico and fizzle out eventually or it'll spread like wild fire. Quick, stop the ferries and planes!

[Para Handy]

My doctor said to me “ If there was a £100 note on the pavement and you could not be bothered to pick it up you had the real flu. If you could pick it up you had no flu of any kind†That was back in the 1960s he was the best doctor I have ever had any contact with, when his face came around the bedroom door you felt half cured and that was before he had opened his bag of tricks and all kids from Scalloway and Burra back then will know who I’m posting about.

[KOYAANISQATSI]

Philip Alcades; a man ignored.

 

This from Sunday, March 15, 2009

 

Winter is almost over, and it appears that we're going to make it through another flu season without a global disaster. That may seem like a miracle after the hysteria generated in recent years by SARS, avian flu and the World Health Organization's standing warning that it's "a matter of time" before the next influenza pandemic strikes. But the truth is that the threat is being hyped.

 

Preparedness warriors try to frighten people by using the word "pandemic." But such strains of the influenza virus -- new ones to which humans have not developed resistance -- aren't necessarily more virulent than the ordinary ones we see each winter. Only two flu pandemics have occurred since 1918, one in 1957 and the other in 1968. In both cases, global mortality was a fraction of what it was in 1918. And in the United States, as a recent study showed, the number of deaths directly attributable to influenza during the two pandemics was no higher than during typical flu seasons.

 

we run the risk of doing more harm than good by overreacting to the threat of a pandemic. In 1976, swine flu, a strain of influenza similar to the one from 1918, was diagnosed in a small number of soldiers at Fort Dix, N.J., one of whom died. That prompted medical experts to warn that the United States faced a crisis reminiscent of the Spanish flu. President Gerald R. Ford authorized a mass inoculation program, and 45 million Americans -- more than 20 percent of the population -- were vaccinated.

 

But the plan crashed. A disorder called Guillain-Barré syndrome, which causes the immune system to attack the body's nerves, began appearing in patients who had received the flu shots. About 500 cases were linked to the vaccine; 32 of those people died. The federal government ended up settling wrongful death and damage claims for millions of dollars. But there was no swine flu epidemic, just a handful of cases.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/12/AR2009031203113.html

[paulb]

its very rare that i agree with KOYAANISQATSI post but the last bit is true. they tried dosing the usa when there was a simular outbreak in the 1970s and the antiviral stuff killed more than the flu. Im sure the new stuff is safer than the early stuff but the treatment is not always problem free and it has to be given in the first 48 hours. how many with a bug goes to see the doctor in the first two days. we wait until we have a nice chest infection before we go to the doctor.

 

http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publicationsandstatistics/Publications/PublicationsPolicyAndGuidance/DH_4104450

The above gives a minimum of 50,000 deaths

[Michael]

And it was published in 2005, and not specific to this kind of flu. It's all very well taking things like this seriously and being prepared, but I have yet to see any evidence we have anything that significant to worry about.

[paulb]

And it was published in 2005, and not specific to this kind of flu. It's all very well taking things like this seriously and being prepared, but I have yet to see any evidence we have anything that significant to worry about.

i agree. they only planned for h5n1. we should be grateful that this bug is not as nasty as that one. there however is a slight risk in egypt at the moment there seems to be an out break of avian flu there. the mortality of the h5 one was close to 100% this one is not as deadly. but bear in mind the 1918 only killed between 2.5 -5% of the worlds population. Yet you can't blame them it was the most protential risk vector for the next pandemic.

[unlinkedstudent]

And it was published in 2005, and not specific to this kind of flu. It's all very well taking things like this seriously and being prepared, but I have yet to see any evidence we have anything that significant to worry about.

i agree. they only planned for h5n1. we should be grateful that this bug is not as nasty as that one. there however is a slight risk in egypt at the moment there seems to be an out break of avian flu there. the mortality of the h5 one was close to 100% this one is not as deadly. but bear in mind the 1918 only killed between 2.5 -5% of the worlds population. Yet you can't blame them it was the most protential risk vector for the next pandemic.

 

Sorry, but given an absolutely dismal holiday we had a few years back in Egypt (and no, I won't ever return); I'm amazed the whole population there hasn't dropped dead through food poisoning! I must have an incredible immune system (but then it's true that mine is strong as psoriatic arthritis is a disorder and I have too many white blood cells and hardly ever get a cold) - I managed to survive my time in Egypt without getting ill whereas peeps were dropping around me like flies; hubby had the squits (serves him right for laughing at me getting the runs after anti-malaria tablets in Borneo) which were worse than what we both had on Ocean Village aka Butlins afloat - good grief, are we safe in any country?

 

Silly me, Cuba was the best place and had the best medical facilities.

 

Now regarding Mexico and flights? Have they suspended flights in/out of Mexico yet? This whole thing reminds me of that recent film and telly programme - we all gonna turn into walking zombies, Will Smith will pop up and attempt to save us all; a sole Government Minister will survive (oh crumbs, not Gordon please) - in a nutshell, we either gonna survive and it will all blow over or (in best Dad's Army blokey voice):

 

"We're doomed laddie, doomed!"

 

[TeeAyBee]

the mortality of the h5 one was close to 100% this one is not as deadly. but bear in mind the 1918 only killed between 2.5 -5% of the worlds population.

 

No it wasn't anywhere near 100%. The WHO database says it can have a mortality rate approaching 100% but it didn't work out like that in the field. The latest WHO figures are at http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2009_04_23/en/index.html show a roughly 60% mortality. Drilling deeper into the articles on the WHO site shows some more vulnerable groups having higher rates than others.

 

Still although there were just 421 confirmed cases worldwide over seven years, a 60% mortality is still quite high - H5N1 is nasty.

[paulb]

the mortality of the h5 one was close to 100% this one is not as deadly. but bear in mind the 1918 only killed between 2.5 -5% of the worlds population.

 

No it wasn't anywhere near 100%. The WHO database says it can have a mortality rate approaching 100% but it didn't work out like that in the field. The latest WHO figures are at http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2009_04_23/en/index.html show a roughly 60% mortality. Drilling deeper into the articles on the WHO site shows some more vulnerable groups having higher rates than others.

 

Still although there were just 421 confirmed cases worldwide over seven years, a 60% mortality is still quite high - H5N1 is nasty.

 

your right. still 60% would make for a very smelly few months.

what are the long term health impacts of theses wee beasties bad chest infections can cause long term harm. What happens if you get a merging of the two bugs. At least its not something like green monkey diseases. Hiding in small communities can help reduce the infection rate. but look at the plague staying at home did not help them Eyam in derbyshire is a very good example. hey its the same advice don't mix with folks if your turning green. Don'T wipe snot on your sleeve. don't cough on people. just add bleeding and funny masks and we've advanced our health service 400 years backwards.

 

http://arts.atenveldt.com/Portals/arts/2005/plague%20mask.jpg

[Guest Anonymous]

paulb,

Could you please do us all a favour, and get pneumonia.

Then perhaps you will realise that any flu virus is just a minor detail which kills a small percentage of people.

Pneumonia, cancer, aids, bullets, and cars kill more people. But you're not harping on about them.

So get a life and stop pissing of Shetlinkers with your scaremongering.

 

[***mod edit - mild personal insult removed***]

[RickB]

Play nice now

[Njugle]

Indeed, Auld Een. Object to postings by all means, but no personal insults. Thank you.

[tlady]

I can just mind the 1968 outbreak .. only cause at 7 years old I was the only one left standing in the household, Mam, Dad and sis were bedridden, all recovered well (in spite of my nursing )

 

Did anyone in Shetland die in 1968 because of the flu?

[Ghostrider]

^^ I had it, I was doing fine....until the Doc insisted I should take a course of antibiotics as a "precaution"....My innards and they did not get along in the slightest, and the nausea that lasted days was worse than any flu. I've have a deep mistrust of the medical profession, bordering on the obsessional ever since.

 

Everybody in the house had it, but pesumably the Doc didn't consider it life-threatening for my granfather at least....No sooner had the Doc left from seeing everbody, than he was back, he'd put his car in the ditch trying to turn it, and expected my grandfather to come out and give him a push.